GAINESVILLE, Ga. — Now that it’s early November, Thanksgiving dinners are at the forefront of everyone’s mind. However, challenges in the poultry industry this year will change how much consumers plan to spend on their turkeys.
Disease challenges and economic factors have driven wholesale turkey prices up about 40 percent, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.
“Poultry farmers have demonstrated their resiliency in facing down challenges, but rising supply costs, trade disputes and avian illnesses have all taken their toll,” Zippy Duvall, AFBF president, said.
Highly pathogenic avian influenza and avian metapneumovirus have majorly impacted the poultry industry, especially turkeys. In this current HPAI outbreak, 18.7 million turkeys have been affected since 2022, including 2.2 million affected turkeys in 2025, the AFBF reported. Additionally, more than 800,000 turkeys were affected in October, according to USDA data.
Fall wild bird migration and cooler temperatures have not been helpful in the industry’s fight against HPAI. Detections have been reported all over the upper Midwest, impacting 600,000 turkeys in the month of September, the AFBF reported.
Minnesota is being hit the hardest by this outbreak as the nation’s top turkey producer and a current hub of HPAI activity. According to the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, more than 660,000 turkeys have been affected by the virus.
As for AMPV, it was present in 60 to 80 percent of turkey flocks in 2024 and continues to be a problem, the National Turkey Federation estimated. Although it is less lethal than HPAI, it is still an issue for the industry.
In addition to disease problems, production challenges may also have an effect on Thanksgiving prices. During the last three decades, U.S. turkey production has steadily declined, but demand has stayed the same, the AFBF said.
According to the USDA’s Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, as of Sept. 18, July turkey production was 426.6 million pounds, which is up from June but down from July 2024.
Not only has production level been down in 2025 compared to previous years, but the number of turkeys being raised is down as well. The Sept. 26 USDA Turkeys Report estimated that 195 million turkeys were raised this year, down 3 percent from 2024 and down 36 percent from a peak of 303 million in 1996.
Alternatively, more poults were hatched and placed in June 2025 than in June 2024, and the number of eggs in incubators was the highest since April, the AFBF reported.
However, despite these high numbers, it’s down almost 10 percent from 5 years ago, showing the impact disease has had on layers’ ability to replenish birds lost, the AFBF added.
The AFBF adds that turkey prices have gone up due to multiple factors. The USDA forecasted that this year’s average price for a frozen whole hen turkey will be $1.32 per pound, while the Center for Food Demand Analysis and Sustainability at Perdue University predicts an average retail price of $2.05 per pound in November.
No matter which price consumers see in stores, they are both a response to lower production and disease challenges.
Retail offerings
“It’s important to remember prices are still 32 percent lower than just three years ago,” Bernt Nelson, AFBF economist, notes. “Diseases such as HPAI and AMPV are devastating flocks. Meanwhile, poultry farmers also grapple with the broader economic challenges impacting the agricultural economy. These production challenges shouldn’t have any impact on consumers’ ability to get turkey, but they may translate to higher retail prices this holiday season.”
Even with price increases, some grocery stores are offering discounts and sales. In mid-October, Aldi announced that it would be offering a Thanksgiving meal deal for $40 that will feed up to 10 people. The meal will include a turkey and enough ingredients for nine sides, according to Aldi’s Thanksgiving press release.
A week after Aldi announced its Thanksgiving meal deal, Walmart did the same. Walmart’s deal offers a basket full of more than 20 national and private brand items, including a Butterball turkey. This basket also serves 10 people for about the same price. Walmart’s deal will be good until Christmas.
Another store offering Thanksgiving deals is BJ’s Wholesale Club. The store announced that it will bring back its free turkey promotion for 2025. Members who spend $150 or more in a single transaction in-club, through the BJ’s mobile app or on BJs.com from Nov. 1-10, qualify for a free fresh or frozen Butterball turkey, the company said in an announcement.
Grocers are doing what they can to make Thanksgiving as affordable as possible for the public despite the challenges of the turkey industry this year.
