Saturday, July 13, 2024

Glowlit Update: Wishful thinking meets market data

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In 2013, a group of people participating in a study were shown charts presenting 90 days of wheat prices. The group was asked to predict the price in 10 days. Half of the group was told that they were “bakers” who would profit if the price of wheat fell, while the other half were told that they were “farmers” who would make money if the price of wheat rose. Apart from this role classification, all information presented to the participants was the same. The results of the study have a lot to say about unconscious human behavior.
Of the participants. . .

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