WASHINGTON — Stemming from the lengthy and ongoing outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza, egg prices, after reaching highs of more than $6 a dozen in March, have seen decreases during the months since spring after the extended efforts of the egg industry to replace devastated flocks.
The federal government, as of Oct. 22 was still in a shutdown, but the USDA did release an updated “Egg Markets Overview” report in October, which notes the current wholesale prices for national trading of graded, loose, white, Large shell eggs at $1.16 a dozen. The New York wholesale price for Large eggs was $1.57 a dozen, the report said, adding that the major production area of the Midwest’s price was $1.46 a dozen, and the California benchmark price for Large eggs was $1.88 a dozen.
Traditional holiday egg demand increases are also on the horizon.
“Negotiated wholesale prices for graded loose caged eggs firmed on improving demand – now moderate to, at times, good, as marketers begin to build stocks in anticipation of the approaching Thanksgiving demand period,” the USDA report says. “With October now half over, marketers are looking ahead to the start of the Thanksgiving baking season, now just a few weeks away and typically the most significant shell egg demand period of the year.”
With the threat of HPAI, and cases continuing nationwide from an outbreak that began in 2022, producers are looking to keeping supplies available for the holiday seasonal demand increases, USDA noted.
“Most are focusing on keeping an adequate supply level going into this period while rotating from spot market offerings, all while keeping an uneasy eye on developments in the ongoing struggle with highly pathogenic avian influenza in commercial table egg layer flocks with two recent and significant outbreaks in recent weeks,” the USDA report added. “Demand among egg products manufacturers is on the rise as recent price declines in the wholesale spot market has many seeking to supplement their stocks and owned production to keep production rates running at a rate that continues to outpace recent years as the calendar moves closer to the carton stock demand season.”
Egg prices and production were also featured in the USDA Economic Research Service’s latest “Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook” report, last updated in September because of the federal government shutdown.
“The 2025 table egg production projection is increased on recent increases in layer inventories,” this report notes. “The projected average egg prices for 2025 and 2026 are adjusted slightly lower on recent price trends and increased production expectations.”
The total table egg production in July was 623.7 million, a 3 percent decrease from last year, ERS said, adding that working toward the trend of rebuilding inventory, the table-egg layer flock in August was 296.9 million, which is a 2.2 percent increase from July, as well as an increase of 6.3 million birds.
“For 2026, projected table egg production was adjusted up by 25 million dozen in the first quarter and by 50 million dozen in the second quarter, resulting in a new annual projection of 7.950 (billion) dozen, up 7.5 percent from the 2025 projection,” ERS said. “These projections reflect the assumption that there will be no further confirmations of highly pathogenic avian influenza in commercial table-egg laying flocks.”
For price projections for the remainder of 2025 and into next year, ERS says, “Reflecting recent prices and increased production expectations, quarterly price projections were adjusted down to ($2.95) per dozen in the third quarter of 2025, ($3.00) per dozen in the fourth quarter of 2025, and ($2.30) per dozen in the first quarter of 2026. The new 2025 average price projection is 8.7 cents lower at ($4.03.7) per dozen. Because of the strength of the first quarter price this would still be about a dollar higher than the 2024 average price.”
“With no changes beyond the first quarter of 2026, the new average price projection for that year is ($2.11.3) per dozen,” the report added.
