WASHINGTON — Currently for 2026, turkey production numbers and turkey exports have been increased to reflect production strengths and a larger international demand. Also, turkey prices are being raised based on recent trends, the USDA’s Economic Research Service notes in its October “Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook” report.
“Turkey production for 2026 is adjusted up 35 million pounds (in October) to (5.134 billion) pounds,” ERS said. “Third quarter production is revised up 15 million pounds to (1.315 billion) pounds on increased expected weights. Fourth quarter production was also revised higher (in October) to (1.320 billion) pounds, up 20 million pounds from September.”
Looking ahead, “turkey production for 2027 is projected at (5.180 billion) pounds, up 55 million pounds from (September’s) projection,” the report noted.
The August turkey slaughter was reported at 17 million, which is a decrease from July’s 17.3 million, but a 4.5 percent increase from last August, the department added. Also, despite this slight decrease in the number of birds, production was up 2.1 million pounds from July, reaching a total of 438.5 million pounds.
The turkey slaughter weights from July to August were up month-over-month to 32.4 pounds in August from 31.8 pounds in July.
Looking at highly pathogenic avian influenza, or bird flu, there was a reappearance in several turkey flocks in September and August, the report said, with 11 cases across Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota and South Dakota. These cases impacted 544,900 birds in September, with 119,300 birds affected in August.
“A faster than expected export pace, as well as higher production, has led to a 20-million-pound increase in the export forecast for 2026 to 461 million pounds,” ERS said. “The export forecast for 2027 is also increased 35 million pounds to 450 million pounds as a substantial portion of the increased production is expected to be shipped abroad. Ending stocks for 2026 and 2027 are both left unchanged.”
Prices
Frozen whole hen turkey prices remain elevated, the report added, with the average for birds being $1.84 per pound as of Oct. 2, with fresh hens and frozen tom prices being similar.
“The 2026 annual average price for frozen whole hen turkeys is raised 0.9 cents to ($1.75.5) per pound,” ERS added. “The third quarter average price for 2026 is lowered to ($1.80.7) per pound, reflecting updated price data through the end of September.”
“The fourth quarter price is raised 5 cents to ($1.75) per pound as increased trade volume entering the Autumn buying period has signaled ongoing demand strength,” the report continued. “The 2027 prices in increased 5 cents to ($1.45) per pound, with recent price strength expected to carry forward into next year.”
Top states
The top states in raising turkeys, in 2025, were:
- Minnesota, 34 million
- North Carolina, 29.5 million
- Arkansas, 21 million
- Indiana, 20 million
- Missouri, 16 million
- Virginia, 14.5 million
For another statistic, it’s reported that these top six states represent about 68 percent of all the United States’ turkey production.
The estimated number of turkeys raised in the United States for the year is 199 million, an increase of 3 percent from last year, the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service notes in a recent report.
“The largest turkey producing state is Minnesota, at 34 million, up 1 percent from the previous year,” NASS said. “North Carolina produced 29.5 million turkeys, up 5 percent from a year ago. Arkansas produced 21 million turkeys, down 2 percent from last year. Indiana produced 20 million turkeys, unchanged from last year. Missouri produced 16 million turkeys, up 9 percent from last year. Virginia is down 5 percent from the previous year at 14.5 million turkeys.”
For turkey eggs in incubators in the United States on Oct. 1, there were 26.7 million, which is 2 percent more than the same time last year, and up 8 percent than the Sept. 1 total of 24.8 million turkey eggs, NASS added.
“Turkey poults hatched during September 2026 in the United States totaled 21.1 million, up 2 percent from September 2025,” the NASS report said. “Poults hatched were down 3 percent from the August 2026 total of 21.9 million poults. The 19.6 million net poults placed during September 2026 in the United States were up 2 percent from the number placed during the same month a year earlier. Net poult placements were down 8 percent from the August 2026 total of 21.2 million.”
