WASHINGTON — Broiler production projections into next year are being increased based on strong hatchery numbers and decreased feed costs, the USDA estimates. Stemming from the federal government shutdown, the most recent USDA Economic Research Service “Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook” report is from late September.
“Wholesale broiler price projections are adjusted down in 2025 and 2026 on recent price trends and increased production expectations,” ERS says. “The 2025 table egg production is increased on recent increases in layer inventories. The projected average egg prices for 2025 and 2026 are adjusted slightly lower on recent price trends and increased product expectations.”
Forecasted turkey production is also adjusted up for this year based on hatchery indicators but decreased for next year based on anticipated slower growth, the department said, adding that turkey price estimates are also raised based on recent trends.
Broilers
The adjusted number for this year’s total broiler production was increased by ERS to 47.925 billion pounds. This is up 2 percent from last year.
“Reflecting continued strength in hatch numbers, as well as strong preliminary data in August, projections for the outlying quarters of 2025 were adjusted up to 12.300 (billion) pounds in the third quarter and 12.175 (billion) pound in the fourth quarter,” the report notes.
“Projected production for the first quarter of 2026 is unchanged at 11.800 (billion) pounds, which would also be an increase of 2 percent year over year,” ERS added. “The outlying quarters’ production projections were adjusted upward to reflect the expectation of favorable input prices, resulting in a new 2026 production projection of 48.300 (billion) pounds. This would be an increase of 0.8 percent from the 2025 projection.”
For broiler prices, in early September the national composite price was $1.18.6 a pound, ERS reported.
“Reflecting the recent seasonal price trend, as well as increased production expectations, projected quarterly average prices for the third and fourth quarters were each adjusted down 5 cents to ($1.23) and ($1.25) per pound respectively,” the report noted. “The projected average price for 2026 was also adjusted downward to ($1.31) per pound.”
Turkeys
The total projected turkey production for this year was increased by the department 46 million pounds in September to 4.837 billion, and for next year it is estimated at 5.040 billion pounds, which is 80 million pounds less August reports, but a 4.2 percent increase from 2025.
“Projections for the first quarter of 2026 are down 15 million pounds, the second quarter is revised down 30 million pounds, and production in the back half of the year is also revised lower,” ERS said.
For turkey prices, third and fourth quarter 2025 price estimated were raised 7 cents and 10 cents per pound, respectively, to $1.57 and $1.55 a pound, and wholesale prices for 2026 are unchanged from the August report of $1.31 a pound.
“Wholesale prices fell to ($1.54.66) per pound in the first week of September, with 387,000 pounds being traded,” ERS said.
Eggs
For next year, table egg production is anticipated to be increased by 25 million dozen in the first quarter and 50 million in the second quarter, ERS said, which makes the 2026 annual production at 7.950 billion dozen. This is a 7.5 percent increase from this year’s estimates.
The department added that these estimates are based on no further large impacts from highly pathogenic avian influenza.
For egg prices, ERS reported that prices leveled in mid-September at $2.61 per dozen.
“Reflecting recent prices and increased production expectations, quarterly price projections were adjusted down to ($2.95) per dozen in the third quarter of 2025, ($3) per dozen in the fourth quarter of 2025, and ($2.30) per dozen in the first quarter of 2026,” the report said. “The new 2025 average price projection is 8.7 cents lower at ($4.03.7) per dozen.”
“Because of the strength of the first quarter price, this would still be about a dollar higher than the 2024 average price,” ERS added. “With no changes beyond the first quarter of 2026, the new average price projection for that year is ($2.11.3) per dozen.”
